The Flathead will again experience a massive flood on the scale of the 1964 deluge that swept the valley, and that risk is increasing as the world warms. That was the shared sentiment of four panelists who discussed lessons learned from the 2022 Yellowstone and 1964 Flathead floods during a community event October 23 in Columbia Falls.

The panelists, including two who experienced the 2022 Yellowstone floods and two who recalled the Flathead flood 61 years ago, shared their thoughts after they and an audience of 140 people viewed One in Five Hundred, a documentary by Hugo Sindelar. Sindelar, an assistant professor of film at Montana State University assisted by his students, interviewed 18 business and civic leaders in four Montana communities to document the impact on Yellowstone’s gateway communities.

A video of the panel discussion is available here.  The One in Five Hundred film is not publicly available online while Sindelar negotiates distribution options, but his paper, “Lessons from the 2022 Yellowstone Floods: The Power of Documentary Film Interviews,” is available from the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado.

“It’s heads up time. It will happen again,” said Bill Dakin, a community historian and retired Realtor who was a Columbia Falls High School student in 1964 when he saw the flood waters inundate riverside neighborhoods and take out bridges, roads and rail lines. No one knows when a 1964-scale flood will happen again, but we can be better prepared the next time, he said.

“In 1964 we didn’t understand what was going on. We’re all a lot smarter now,” he said, with real-time river information, weather forecasts, and science-based climate projections at our fingertips.  Still, many people’s time horizons are short. “We have a culture that is much more oriented to now (than long-range planning),” he said. “Very few people take flood insurance seriously if they’re not compelled to buy it by their mortgage lender.”

Sindelar, who participated in the panel discussion after showing his 56-minute film, highlighted the personal trauma many experienced after the 2022 flood. As climate change leads to higher likelihood of rain-on-snow events, community conversations about growing risk and preparedness can help ensure that future floods are less shocking. But no matter the pre-flood preparedness, it’s important to realize that many months of recovery after a flood can take a major toll on a community’s collective mental health, especially after the emergency response and media attention have eased.

Panelists noted that many who have moved into Flathead homes built in recent decades don’t even know that they would have been underwater in 1964. Shirley Folkwein, whose family farm east of the Flathead River near Columbia Falls was partially inundated in 1964, noted developer plans to build high-density housing in areas that were under 8 feet of water. “It’s alright for people to make their own decisions within the 500-year floodplain, but it’s important that they are informed about what the possibilities are. If they are aware of the risk, they might still choose to buy there or build there. But maybe there should be financial consequences where you pay for the cleanup yourself rather than rely on government help.”

Whether or not individual landowners or local governments act to minimize exposure and development in flood zones, financial markets are stepping in, noted Bill Berg, a Gardiner businessman who served on the Park County Commission in 2022. “Money talks, and insurance is starting to drive decisions about where people buy and where people build.”

Just as insurance companies are making it more difficult and expensive to get wildfire insurance, federal managers of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) have been moving to reduce taxpayer subsidies and to set premiums based on a specific, individualized assessment of each property’s flood risk.  Efforts within the Trump Administration to privatize flood insurance could make it even more difficult for risky properties to secure flood insurance.  Established in 1968 after many insurance companies stopped writing flood policies due to financial risk, the NFIP currently covers 90 percent of all flood insurance policies in the U.S.

One critical solution, panelists said, is to identify and conserve critical areas that are in jeopardy of flooding. State agencies and nonprofit organizations have done a lot to maintain open space along waterways in the Flathead, Dakin said, and that should be continued and supported.

“It’s important for land planners and communities to step up and say there are places we want to protect and keep open,” Folkwein said.

Each of the panelists shared harrowing stories of people who narrowly averted death as the flood waters quickly rose. Miraculously, no on in the Yellowstone area or the Flathead Valley died during those events, although 31 people died on the east side of the mountains in 1964 when two dams burst.

The panel shared other lessons learned from the two megafloods:

• More flood gauges should be installed with real-time reporting in Montana’s headwater streams and rivers.
• Emergency responders, local governments and state agencies must coordinate communications and get out ahead of rumors that spread during an emergency. Encourage residents to sign up for alerts for public safety and emergency information. For example, the Nixle service is a texting platform that allows local officials to send out timely and reliable information. To sign up, text your zipcode to 888777.
• Community preparedness efforts, such as flood awareness events, mapping of designated open space and green belts, and coordinated emergency response planning, can reduce flood insurance rates for property owners through FEMA’s Community Rating System (CRS). The flood scenario project led by Climate Smart Glacier Country seeks to increase Flathead County’s CRS insurance discount from 5% currently to 15%, which is the level attained by Miles City, Yellowstone County, the City of Great Falls, and other Montana communities.
• Plan for evacuation routes, and account for a shifting climate when modernizing infrastructure to ensure it will be more resilient to extreme events.

The October 23 event served as the launch of Climate Smart Glacier Country’s flood scenario project:  Anticipating the Flood Next Time.  CSGC has raised funds from local philanthropies and local agencies, but the project was set back in May when the Trump Administration terminated an EPA Thriving Communities grant to strengthen community resilience in the face of rising flood risk.  Fundraising efforts are ongoing. (You can donate here!)

Project objectives include:

• Assess shifting risk due to warmer air and oceans
• Analyze social, economic, and ecological impacts of a 1964-scale Flathead flood
• Engage Flathead residents in flood planning
• Implement risk mitigation strategies
• Reduce insurance premiums through community action

Climate Smart Glacier Country thanks our co-sponsors of the October 23 event:

• Flathead Conservation District
• Western Montana Conservation Commission
• Columbia Falls High School Conservation Crew
• Upper Flathead Neighborhood Association

A large audience attends the October 23, 2025 event, When the Waters Rise Again

Panelists (from left) Bill Berg, Bill Dakin, Shirley Folkwein, Hugo Sindelar and moderator Steve Thompson                       

Audience members explore exhibit about past floods in the lobby